Simulation of options to replace the special COVID-19 Social Relief of Distress grant and close the poverty gap at the food poverty line

We use a fiscal incidence model based on the South African 2014/15 Living Conditions Survey to simulate poverty reduction impacts of selection medium-to-long-term social grant options with goal replacing existing special COVID-19 Social Relief Distress upon its expiry and closing extreme (food line) gap. Our key findings are that introduction household-targeted family is theoretically able reduce most efficiently; however, it faces stark implementation challenges. The basic income has largest impact large budget possibly easier implement through tax system, but ties for least efficient scenario. A redesigned similar in size presents middle-ground terms efficiency Finally, topping up child support more than implementing public works programme, both small size, former would exclude households without children, while latter operational constraints competing goals, diluting short-term impact. find some sensitivity line chosen budget, strongly recommend further research be conducted aspects new grants which may substantively change theoretical results ranking presented here. In addition, sociological consequences possible shift towards household-based system prove important.